Retirement News : Seniors : Those Dratted Long-Term Care Stats

Those Dratted Long-Term Care Stats

Date Added: 02-12-2005

Long-term care statistics are misleading.  Read the excerpt below.

Motley Fool - USA

By David Braze (TMF Pixy)
December 1, 2005

This is the fourth article in a six-part series on long-term care.

In the opening article of this long-term care series, I cited some of the scary statistics often encountered in discussions of this topic. Insurance companies, along with various other interest groups, seem to use these data to suggest that many folks are destined to end their years in a nursing home. When statements from the National Long-Term Care Brokers and the Chicago Tribune state that "The number of persons in nursing homes is expected to increase by over 60% in the next 30 years," where "The average length of stay ... is 2.4 years," what else are we supposed to think? Yet, as we will see shortly, perhaps all is not as it seems when these claims are examined in detail.

Let's look first at the claim that nursing home populations will increase and even double by 2030. To me, this is a scare statistic of the worst kind. True? Almost certainly. Surprising? Hardly. In fact, a doubling of nursing home residents should shock no one. According to the Census Bureau, the 65 and older population is also projected to double by 2030. What, then, is so special about any increase in nursing home residents during the same period? Absolutely nothing! In fact, a parallel increase in nursing home stays should be expected as the elderly population increases. Only someone unaware of the growing elderly population would think otherwise.

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